What We Don’t Know

“There are two kinds of forecasters; those who don’t know 
and those who don’t know they don’t know.”
– John Kenneth Galbraith


At age 24, when I started in the wealth planning business I was about as naïve and ignorant as a young man could be. Unfortunately, I just didn’t know it at the time. Back then I wanted to be the guy who had all the answers for my clients who, for some reason known only unto themselves, had decided to entrust much of their wealth to a kid in his mid-20’s. Only as I got older, hopefully gaining a modicum of wisdom along the way, did it dawn on me that as long as I knew where to find the answers it was okay to say, “I don’t know”, and to feel comfortable saying it.
 
The image shown below sums up perfectly some of the wisdom I have gained over the last few decades. I would file this under the “Everything that we don’t know we don’t know” category, which seems to become larger with each passing year of my life!

In my opinion, very few authors are more insightful and entertaining than Morgan Housel when it comes to financial commentary. He wrote a short article entitled, Expectations vs. Forecasts about what we don’t know and also discusses one of the critical keys to long-term financial success. Definitely worth a read.


Keith N. Thomson

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